Tourist arrivals have increased thirty-fold in the last 50 years and are expected to double in the next 15 years, WTO deputy secretary general Dawid de Villiers said on Tuesday May 11.

The World Tourism Organisation (WTO) executive said that in the absence of a major catastrophe, arrivals which now stand at 700 million should rise to 1.5 billion in 15 to 20 years.

Speaking at the WTO Commission for Africa meeting, held at the Plantation Club, he admitted that the last three years have been particularly difficult with some destinations and sectors like air travel and executive hotels experiencing significant declines in income and arrivals.

"Nevertheless, tourism has managed to ride the storm remarkably well. And that shows the inherent strength and resilience of the industry," he said.

He said the long term future of tourism remains incredibly positive, and more and more people will travel.

"They will, simply because more borders are opening up, more destinations are coming into the tourism market and air transport is providing affordable access to more destinations," he said.

Addressing delegates of the 41st WTO Commission for Africa, Mr de Villiers said that more people even in the developing world will have disposable income to travel.

"Perhaps they will initially go to neighbouring countries, but later they are likely to go further afield," he said.

He gave the example of China whose export tourism 15 years ago "was almost zero," but last year had a number of outbound passengers equal to that of Japan.

He said with the expected major changes in the amount of air travel, ordinary transport, airports and other sectors will experience major environmental and social economic impacts.

"The challenge posed by this growing tourism is the need to guide the industry so as to minimise the negative, but maximise the positive impacts," he said.

He said that there are unfortunately many examples to show how tourism can negatively impact the environment and social structures.

"Tourism can offer a cover for criminal activities," he said, giving drug trafficking and child abuse as examples.

"So we need to protect the industry from all kinds of abuse," he said, adding that WTO is trying to promote a little-known code of ethics for tourism, which provides guidelines for different stakeholders.

He said the code was unanimously accepted by the general assembly of the WTO in 1999 and has since been recognised by the United Nations. He asked the delegates to promote the code's contents in their respective countries.

"On a positive note, we can use the strength of tourism to work for the people, communities, developing countries," he said.

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